Crypto

Just like the field of psychology left behind abstract Freudian bullshit and became evolutionary and experimental (Milgram), the field of economics (and trading) is slowly abandoning its own abstract bullshit an naive assumptions (rational, intelligent agents maximize their expected returns using optimizations, independence of observable events, stable, unchanging probabilities and variance, etc.) and evolved into behavioral, by selecting human emotions and crowd behavior as primary driving forces. Markets are driven by memes and FOMO in the age of Robinhood and FTX.

All sophisticated mathematical models based on abstract economic theories (based on naive, idialistic assumptions) are wrong, plain and simple. Not a single hedge fund, stuffed with PhDs to the brim ever posted a statistically significant returns consistently outperforming the market. Everything can be attributed to plain luck plus diversification. FTX was very lucky for a long time, riding a bull market. Every one can be a genius in a bull mania phase.

So, the main pont is to discard all idealistic views and naive assumptions and see markets as they are - huge crowds of degens swayed back and forth by memes on social media (the Elder school, to which I proudly belong).

Overview

In general, one has to have deep pockets (and proper money management) to survive in the market as long as possible, till he gets somehow lucky (by being prepared).

Just like it is with Boxing, one will be hit a lot (and has to be ok with taking hits), and the main virtue is endurance and alertness for not missing a chance. One has to be able to stand up for 12 rounds. It is that simple.

The major cause of loses is over-trading (second only to the plain stupidity). By trading too much (especially inside ranges) one goes against the law of large numbers in a riged, manipulated minus-sum game especially designed to confuse and inflict loses. The mantra is trade less, but just right.

Markets

huge crowds of people being swayed by strong emotions
a flock behavior (like everyone else, especially FOMOing in)
opportunists and dip-buyers, following simple strategies and heuristics
liquidity is the most important metric (avg. volume and trades)

System

A trading system must be as simple or even primitive as possible, so it can be back-tested by definition.
Setting stops at zero is the simplest system and it will consistently outperform random entries and exits on any kind of market (better than random).

Consistent

For any system to work its actions must be consistent and automated (no doubts or delays).

Scale

Even simple automation must support essential features

leverage
multiple positions
both directions (“hedge mode”)
multiple tickers (“isolated margin”)
multiple exchanges (preferably Asian)

Rules

Always buy the dips on the most hyped shitcoins with stops at zero. Just do it. This alone will make profit if consistent actions will be taken.
indicators like RSI of BOLL work (because other people react on them too)

Setup

an API, not an app
automatic stops to zero (entries)
futures (being able to short)
leverage (the most essential part)
both directions (hedge mode)
isolated margin (don’t get liquidated)
account management (never dry up to 0)

Notes

greed prevails. the “number/line go up” meme
FOMOing in at the “bottom” is most powerful force
memes are powerful. the PIVOT meme pumped markers +7%
always buy the dip (with stop at 0), especially on shitcoins
missed FFT and SOL meltdown while it was discussed on biz