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Major Factors

Time in US and East-Asian timezones

Mornings

The morning is psychologically significant. People are fresh, full of energy and unwarranted optimism. They check pre-market charts and news and are ready to make over-confident, emotional decisions.

Major moves happen when Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan and South Korea wakes up.

However the biggest moves are when the US wakes up, NY in particular.

Nights

Nights are also special. People are stressed, exhausted, without focus and readily make stupid, emotional decisions, usually on a safe side. I personally have closed uncountable number of strategic positions.

Overwhelming stress makes people (and animals) seek safety, and this is just an evolved safety mechanism at neurological level. Most people cannot control this, leave alone override.

Opening of the US stock market

The opening of the US stock market is the most significant event of every day. By that time hordes of professional Wall Street traders are already fully caffeinated, cocained and psyoped by screaming financial news and hysterical social media.

The first hour after opening defines the day ahead, unless, of course, some unexpected news hit the market. Most of ordinary events are anticipated and this is the meaning of the “priced in” meme.

and its closing

Majority of floor and retail traders do not leave risky potions overnight - they liquidate them, both longs and shorts, before the bell. Imagine, there is suddenly no buyers for your bags. Nightmare.

This is why professionals who trade US stock market (against retail, of course) are particularly active right before the closing time, usually after a day’s break (to either side).

Crypto makers are of course 24/365, but there is way less activity (in terms of market orders and volume) after closing. Again, the US time is the most important.

So, if you cannot be aware and focused at these times you probably should not trade at all, because you will miss most of major moves.

US macro events

Periodical releases of economic data by major US agencies are among the most important macro events. Fed meetings and public speeches of its officials are important too.

All these evens have any significance exactly because lots of people consider them as important. There are a few different sects which has a secret knowledge how to interpret the messages and predict further Market moves. Does not work most of the time, but secret doctrines are not supposed to.

One have to know the key dates of the month and time and be awake and alert. These events move the Market because other people make their quick and stupid decisions right during the events or the very next minute after the numbers has been released.

Notice that Europe is almost irrelevant. Russia has much bigger significance because it runs and trades all the major crypto scams.

Minor but real factors

The end of a hourly candle is consistent minor factor - it coincide with ends of all the divisors of 60, so a lot of people watching differnt timelines will see a beginning of a new candle.

People who are previously stood aside (not holding any position but wishing to) usual decide to jump in at these “new beginnings”.

Author: <schiptsov@gmail.com>

Email: lngnmn2@yahoo.com

Created: 2023-08-08 Tue 18:42

Emacs 29.1.50 (Org mode 9.7-pre)