Universal principles

There is no such thing as randomness. This is just an abstract mathematical concept. Vastly complex causality relations are not random.

Price actions are not random. They are caused by all the actions (and inaction) of all active and passive market participants, acting according to their current views/models and sets of beliefs.

There is no such thing as independence in markets. Traders are watching the same charts, even of seemingly unrelated markets, reading the same news and articles, being swayed by the same FOMO emotions and current memes.

There are always two sides within every trade, so number of buyers is always equal to the number of sellers, however there is eagerness (a strong urge) to buy or sell.

The buying or selling pressure is willingness to buy above or to sell below the market and this eagerness to buy or sell is what actually moves the price.

Markets are driven by human psychology based on current sets of beliefs, dominant emotion and brainwashing by social media and memes.

The basic assumption about intelligent, rational agents trying to maximize their return with optimization methods is just naive abstract academic bullshit.

In reality there are huge crowds of degens swayed by emotions of FOMO, greed and fear.

There is an ancient Eastern philosophy of the mind, based on Upanishads and some early Buddhist texts. The main premise is that there is a “weil” created by our minds, which distorts and partially conceals What Is Real, and there is a Path for penetrating through this weil, which is called Maya principle.

Every higher animal builds and maintains some inner representation of its shared environment inside its brain, using a specialized neural circuitry (regions of the brain) which has been evolved to “perfectly” match the environment. At least the evolutionary process selected the most accurate representations, which is the key to quick adaptation.

Any living organism acts according to its current representation (or a “map”, which is not a territory) of its environment or what we would call “Reality”, and never, in principle, according to Reality itself.

Any representation has been formed based on restricted sensory input from the evolved organs of perception and signal-processing biological machinery (built out neurons), so it is by definition not “perfect” or even accurate. It is just good-enough and matches the actual physical constraints of the environment

Brain’s circuitry evolved to filter out most of irrelevant details and particulars and to react to some common events in the environment, such as sudden motions, sounds, day/night or weather changes. We would call these “evolved hard-wired heuristics”. The principle is that no living being sees all aspects of reality, leave alone it as a Whole.

In any species learning is based on repeated exposure (each particular experience reinforces some pre-arranged by evolution neuron networks, just like muscle tissue) and social conditioning which is also a repeated exposure to some socially constructed stimuli, verbal or visual.

Trading is a vastly complex, socially constructed system, based on a set of shared beliefs, similar in principles and methodologies to organized religions. There is much more from a religion than from any science, given that organized religions readily employ pseudo-scientific narratives.

Ultimately, trading activities should be viewed as socially constructed and, just like religious rituals, self-reinforced - i.e. based on observations of activities of other participants of a sect.

There is literally nothing else behind the rituals, but traditional dogmas and the notion of “doing things in strictly the right way in accordance with a multitude of seemingly relevant and logical minute details”.

There is, of course, a wast “religious” literature about trading, comprised mostly of commentaries and advises of fully initiated.

Just as with religions, the ones who really benefited are merchants selling stuff, various middlemen and hotel owners. There is a whole industry around retail trading of crypto, and they live off commissions, slippage and fees.

All biological systems, which we would call species, evolved to react quickly and adequately to repeated common events in the shared environment and to anticipate repeated (and therefore probable) events. This seems to be an universal strategy.

Notice that no animal or a biological system is trying to predict (because predictions are inaccurate) anything, only react according to hard-wired (evolved) heuristics.

it is also an evolutionary stable strategy to over-estimate the danger and over-react (run away from a shadow), but at the same time very quickly recover and switch back to the normal mode of operations. It takes a few seconds for most animals to recover from pain and/or fear.

Environment (Reality) is the best supervisor and in the long-enough run a match could be “perfect”. Unfortunately, we don’t have time.

The key principle with supervised learning is that the environment has to be stable. No learning is possible in a chaos, which lacks stable patterns. No life is possible in a chaos, and no learning (adaptation). The Causality Principle and stable intermediate forms are required.

Everything which we “register” with our “sensors” in the Marker are the consequences of recent actions of other people (or software agents).

At every moment we have a snapshot of the sum-total (result) of all actions (and inaction) of all active and passive market participants. No more, no less.

What we “see” is already in the past - it is already a record - a history. We have to react to what is already happened, which is, if you think for a moment, is the only way.

There is no way to predict anything but to anticipate and be prepared.

Weather patterns, situation on a road, could be seen within a very short, almost immediate frame (of the environment) and this frame is enough to react adequately.

We are not trying to predict the weather in the long run, instead we are observing the actual processes right here and right now (In a current locality) and identity the actual patterns in a given frame.

Predictions will fail with the probability 0.5, while in observing the actual patterns there is no uncertainty.

The processes we observe are continuous, so they continue to change (evolve) as we observe, so our perception of them is necessarily continuous and changing too. Patterns which we derive, however, are “stable”.