Universal principles

There is no such thing as randomness. This is just an abstract mathematical concept. Vastly complex causality relations are not random.

Price actions are not random. They are caused by all the actions (and inaction) of all active and passive market participants, acting according to their current views/models and sets of beliefs.

Price actions are not independent

The assumptions about statistical independence are just absttract bullshit. Every trader looks what other traders are doing, even on different and seemingly unrelated markets. Evey trader reads almost the same news stories, articles and shitposts.

Most if not all traders are biased about how they view the markets and recent price actions.

Markets are driven by human psychology, not abstract theoretical mathematics or vastly complex models of hedge funds.

Just like psychology eventually discarded Freudian abstract bullshit, behavioral economists tend to discard the bullshit of abstract theory and study the actual happenings, and the details of schemes.

The findings are very similar to those of Stanley Milgram, and they show that people are acting out of emotions and beliefs. No objectivity or even independent thinking whatsoever, as usual.

Retail and other human traders act according their current set of beliefs and memes about the market and the dominant emotion, which can be greed, fear, FOMO or combination of these.

The basic assumption that markets are populated by intelligent, rational, optimizing participants is just naive and wrong.

There are just huge crowds of emotional degens being swept by emotions and current memes.

Traders form “religious sects” according their current set of beliefs and recent brain-washing by social media.

While whether or not perma-bullishness or coin-maximalism are distinct marks of an idiocy is another question. But the beliefs that markets only go up or any kind of certain, predetermined outcome is, of course, plain stupidity.