Psychology

Trading is a social process (governed by social psychology), NOT mathematics or sophisticated models.

A market is a mess made by literally millions of people, just like politics, sports and societies in general.

People are driven by emotions, NOT cold rationality. Most of them even are incapable of being rational, which requires certain skills.

Psychology used to be full of abstract Freudian and Jungian abstract bullshit, but nowadays it is mostly evolutionary psychology based on cognitive neuroscience, thank god.

At the core of this psychology are natural cravings and social instincts (heuristics or shortcuts the brain uses without logical thinking), but at a “higher level” it is an urge to feel good and to avoid bad feeling, which both are signaling and reward systems.

Through evolved emotions we “know” what is good and what isn’t for us.

People use lots of mental and behavioral tricks to avoid feeling lousy and to repeat again and again some good feelings of confidence. “success”, “being in control” or just being “high”. Most of the time these mental tricks are either ignoring information and avoiding looking at things as they are or just lying to oneself, or both.

Those tricks together with impulsive-compulsive actions and a strong urge to repeat the feeling of “success” (a hormonal reward) is what drives the retail and manipulative, predatory aspects of the market. People are just going full retard, especially in crowds.

This implies that the main driving force is the dumb majority (just as in everything social) and their strong emotions of greed and fear, their knee-jerk reactions, their habits and their social conditioning.

One does not have to prove to himself that he is right and they are wrong. (They are wrong, but there are way too many of them).

One has to ride the emerging market currents and waves (and see them as they are) without going against them or their ultimate cause (a huge crowds of stupid people).

Just like a surfer, to stay alive one has to understand the waves and currents and never go against them, no matter how it feels.

Degenerates are buying, high on idiotic unsubstantiated copium, right into an onsetting global recession caused by very obvious factors? So be it - let the chips fall where they may. Do not try to argue with them or to convince anyone that you know better.

Actual trading is to have a dashboard of an airplane which shows you what is actually going on (not what you imagine or feel). Yes, degens are buying, the slope is high, the velocity is high, but volume is below average. This means literal degenerates are FOMOing in. Ok, ride the momentum they creted.

Never open an opposite short position just because they are “obviously wrong”. Timing is crucial. Short only /after the momentum is gone and an idiotic euphoria ceased for time being.

So, go with them never against them, even if they are idiots. The waves and currents they create has its “energy” and “momentum”, so just buy the dip before they are FOMOing in at every single higher low.

FOMOing in by literal degenerates is the strongest market force. It creates actually market currents (bull or bear “markets”) and waves (long term trends). And a trend is tour friend.

The most difficult thing is trading is to determine and understand “time in the market” (which beats timing the market, you know).

Philosophically, it is exactly the same universal principle discovered and popularized by the Buddha - “to see things as they really are”. Other formulation would have the least distance from actual reality, which is a fundamental abstract mathematical concept.

There is no other way but embed oneself right into the information flows (a storming sea of screaming bullshit) and somehow measure the current sentiments of a crowd of emotional degenerates driven by catchy stupid memes. Yes, there is no other way - one has to be embedded in the real world, just like every biological entity is.

Again, it is useless and fatal to argue with a large crowd of idiots just like it is fatal to “argue” with a large wave. One has to skillfully ride it, and that is it. No more, no less.

If you see an obvious deceptive shilling that works (it moves the price) never try to argue or fight it. Just open a position in the direction in which the crowd goes. Shilling is a for-profit activity, which implies there is a profit at least for the paid shills.

Markets are vastly complex social processes (actual social reactors) and are impossible to be comprehended and understood neither in their entirety, nor in all the particular details, which constantly evolve both at the level of details and as a whole.

Just like with the weather on a particular coast, one has to study and understand common, re-emerging patterns and act accordingly, never trying to predict, but always to “read ahead” and anticipate.

One must never think of what the weather will be, but to see and react to actual weather-forming patterns which are already out there. Just like with bike riding, one has to react to what actually is, not what one thinks would be in some abstract future. One rides a here and now, and this is the only way to survive.

And yes, one must ignore what degenerates are screaming to each other about trading. Just listen to where they are going right now and why they think this is the only way to go.